![]() This makes a 2.634 multiplier for the total run, which seems like a good multiplier to stick to. ![]() The $257,698,183 opening weekend for “Infinity War” accounted for 38% of its $678,815,482 total domestic gross. This means average for a Russo directed Avengers film given my base is 86.3% on RT, 89.5% user score on RT, and 69.3/100 on Metacritic. For Russo directed Avengers film, I’m not using Infinity War as my base since that’s just one movie, so I used all Avengers films and all Russo films. Avengers films have an average of 84% on RT, 88.3% user score on RT, and 67.7/100 on Metacritic. For Russo directed films, that’s an average of 88.6% on Rotten Tomatoes, a 90.7% user score on RT, and a 71/100 on Metacritic. On Metacritic, that’s a 68/100 with a low of 54 (Thor: the Dark World) and a high of 88 (Black Panther). The average MCU movie has an 84% on Rotten Tomatoes with a user score of 82%. I’ll say super a super high prediction for me is at 60% max capacity, which would be $318,151,732.50. This is a pretty high likelihood barring scathing reviews and negative word of mouth on opening weekend. For “Endgame” to make $300 million domestically opening weekend, theaters have to perform on average at 56.58% of total capacity. ![]() That is if every theater performs at 100% capacity across all showings, even the midnight ones. The maximum the movie could make opening weekend is, according to my probably wrong math, is $530,252,887.50. Now, there’s a lot of talk that “Endgame” could make over $300 million, which is very possible. My conservative estimate would be if less people see “Endgame” than “Infinity War,” and I’m using 45% as my number now. Now we can play with a few numbers all revolving around that percent of total capacity of 48.17% that we got earlier. Seemingly no one wants to skip out on opening weekend. ![]() There’s a certain excitement surrounding “Endgame” that makes it more hyped than its predecessor. This is if it performs like “Infinity War,” but we all know that’s not going to happen. Using that max opening weekend per theater BO revenue that we calculated for “Endgame” and the 48.17%, if “Endgame” performs exactly like “Infinity War,” it will make $57,093.25 per theater or $255,435,191.27 total opening weekend. Believe me, I’m probably very wrong, but this is my thought process here. This is 48.17% of total capacity with all my wacky numbers and stuff. In 2018, if we use the same number of screenings per theater, we can compare the $57,599.06 opening weekend gross per theater to a maximum of $119,568.75 using a $9.11 average ticket price for 2018. Using a 2019 average ticket price of $9.03, we get a maximum opening weekend per theater box office revenue of $118,518.75. Using a seating capacity of 250 per theater (a number that I chose because this is my article and like I can do what I want), we can calculate a maximum number of tickets sold per theater opening weekend of 13,125. Doing the same thing for Thursday, we can in Maryland we can see that the average number of screening per theater is 9.857. This translates to roughly 42.64 screenings per theater per weekend if we’re using the same times for Saturday and Sunday, which I checked and it checks out. I couldn’t find times for Infinity War a year ago so I’m using times for Friday, Apfor “Avengers: Endgame.” The average number of showings per theater in Maryland is 14.214. To calculate percent seated of total capacity since I couldn’t find any sources and this is mostly guesswork, I took Maryland as my sample. The average number of seats per movie theater is apparently 200-300. Doing some quick math here ($257,698,183/4474), we can say that “Infinity War” sold roughly $57,599.06 per theater on opening weekend counting Thursday screenings. Let’s say the film opens in 4,474 theaters, which is what “Infinity War” had. The opening two days are all sold out in Maryland in every theater I checked. I think it’s fair to say that “Endgame” will top this record considering it’s really hard to get tickets for the opening weekend even though we’re still a week away. “Infinity War” opened with a chart topping $257,698,183, which currently holds the record for biggest opening weekend of all time. The first thing that everyone is going to be wondering is the opening weekend prediction.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |